No more Kelces? NFL analyst indicates Chiefs star Travis Kelce is playing on his final contract

Travis Kelce and Patrick Mahomes have been synonymous with the Kansas City Chiefs for the last half-decade, but that time might be winding down. At least, that is what comments made by NFL analyst Chris Simms appear to indicate. Speaking on Wednesday morning’s edition of “Pro Football Talk,” the analyst talked about the tight end riding off into the sunset.

Chris Simms: “[00:01:20] I don’t think he’s gonna have any trouble playing these last two years and timing it out the right way to where he rides off into the sunset and makes millions per podcast episode and millions doing whatever the hell else he wants to do. [00:01:32],” he said. [12.3] PFT

To some fans, the talk of the end might be a surprise with the tight end’s fame hitting perennial new peaks. However, the age 35 tight end will be heading into an age 37 season after his current deal, per Spotrac.

As far as tight ends go, Travis Kelce is already playing beyond when many tight ends wrap up their careers. However, tight end is one position in which players have played into their late 30s before.

San Diego Chargers phenom Antonio Gates played until he was 38 years old. Kelce, as arguably the best tight end in the league over the last several years, has a chance to catch passes deep into his 30s.

Travis Kelce attempts to reverse concerning downtrend with Chiefs

Travis Kelce at his brother Jason Kelce’s press conference announcing his retirement from the NFL

While the tight end’s fame has only increased in the last 12 months, a trend in his production has prompted concern. Many have written or spoken about the tight end’s decrease in total yards earned between 2022 and 2023. However, there is another, deeper downtrend that has taken place.

In 2020, Patrick Mahomes’ top tight end earned 13.5 yards per catch. In 2021 and 2022, that number dropped to 12.2 yards per catch. Then, in 2023, it declined again, dropping to 10.6 yards per catch.

While pass catchers are not quite held to the same standard as running backs on yards per carry, a steady decline like this indicates trouble. In other words, instead of slicing and dicing defenses deep, Kelce has been a bit more shallow in his production per catch.

Meaning, the tight end isn’t exploding down the field as much as in past years, and he has only gotten more shallow over the last half-decade. 30 is the common point of decline for pass catchers. This roughly lines up with Kelce’s age, who played an age 32 season in 2021, the first year of the decline.

At this point, it appears the decline is on. How long will Travis Kelce be able to fight retirement?

If any of the above quotes are used, credit “Pro Football Talk,” and H/T Sportskeeda.

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